lecture two, development
development is not an automatic outcome
in any given social formation—it requires specific
social/structural preconditions. most of history characterized by
stagnation.
the critical shift was in incentive
structures, which compelled producers to build in an orientation
towards innovation/cost-cutting in their productive activity. until
this happened, you don't get economic growth as an everyday
component.
in European history, we are asking,
what was an essential characteristic?
this week we focused on, first, a shift
in agriculture. and second, we asked what this means for
latecomers—both in terms of disadvantages, but there are some
advantages, also ('liabilities to 'early development'').
Kemp and Crouzet put it quite well –
developing countries aren't going to repeat the path of the early
developers. nonetheless, they will have to put certain preconditions
in place.
the main precondition is the domestic
constraint—the constraint that traditional agriculture imposes upon
the economy. there are, in fact, two kinds of transitions that are
relevant: (1) within agriculture, the transition from traditional to
modern agriculture—from pre-capitalist to capitalist agriculture;
(2) away from agriculture, even of a capitalist kind, towards
industry.
growth, then, becomes coincident with
industrialization (development is often synonymous to
industrialization).
today, a defense of the notion that
industrialization is central.
why should agriculture be a constraint?
you can look at it from the supply side
and the demand side.
from the supply side:
agriculture as the main occupation
of most of the labour-force – it sucks up the labour supply,
inhibiting the deployment of labour towards more productive
activity. you have to free up labour from agriculture (the
enclosures)
if agriculture is not dynamic,
then the availability of material inputs for the production process
will also be dampened. if the primary sector is stagnant, then
industrialists face rising costs of inputs.
wage-goods—in early stages of
development, most of the wage of industrial workers goes on food
consumption. if agriculture is stagnant, it means that real wages
will be low (because there will be little money freed up for
purchasing, .
from the demand side:
very few of those involved in
agriculture will be interested in buying goods, which will mean that
the domestic market is thin (Lenin vs. Narodniks—kicking the
peasants off the land will produce a mkt, according to Lenin. so you
create a market by changing property relations, not by increasing
wages)
even if you dispossess peasants
and/or force them to be oriented to the market, it remains possible
that their labour remains inefficient/not productive. even
nonsubsistence but non-dynamic agriculture will mean that the growth
of the market will be slow (and there will be slow growth in demand
for industrial goods).
this means that it is absolutely
essential for there to be a transition, within agriculture, from a
traditional system of agriculture to a dynamic one.
now let's discuss the second
transition—from agriculture, to industry.
cf. Kaldor—the main point is that no
matter how dynamic your agriculture is, it will never be as high as
the growth path you'll get if your main economic activity is
industry. industry is capable of generating a much higher growth path
than the best agricultural sectors.
there are a number of reasons for this:
agriculture grows more slowly than
industry is that agriculture is constrained by some irreducible
natural limitations (Marx makes this point in Vol II: labour time
vs. production time, in agriculture versus industry). capital is
'tied' down, and it doesn't like being tied down. thus you will also
have less capital coming in.
agriculture is less open to scale
economies—it doesn't generate 'increasing returns' (when the same
amount of inputs generate greater returns), but gets much faster
into 'decreasing returns' (when the same amount of inputs generate
decreasing returns).
agriculture is also subject to
more volatility on the world market, in terms of returns to trade,
and decreasing terms of trade. this increases the risk aversion of
peasants, which means that they will shun market production.
so for an economy to develop, an
economy must not only transform agriculture, but transform 'out' of
agriculture.
why not remain an agrarian country?
it's politically difficult to
sustain – people don't want a lower standard of living. economic
development is politically something very helpful, for elites.
it's a Hobbesian world out there.
States are competing, and countries which are more dynamic
economically tend to wipe out weaker countries.
England, by the 1720s, is able to
construct a very efficient central State, thanks to the settlement of
1688. these revenues help it build a very powerful military machine,
and the Navy. England's defeat of France in the mid-1700s (Seven
Years' War), and then in the Napoleonic Wars make Europe sit up and
take notice. All of Europe, after 1815, starts a process of
transforming its economic structure, and building States that can
withstand this English behemoth. this is what drives the impetus to
'late development'.
the foregoing is important because it
responds to two criticisms:
the West has generated a prejudice
against small-scale agriculture (Schumacher) – small-scale
agriculture is presented as being inefficient, as a drag on economic
growth, but in fact family farming actually generates higher
returns. the identification of development with industry is a
mistake.
from post-colonial theory, via
Chaterji, the argument is that the drive to industrialize is the
result of post-colonial elites internalizing Reason and Science. the
implicit argument in this is that the reason the third-world chose
to industrialize is because its elites were socialized into
accepting this as the desirable/valid form of development.
for either of these to make sense,
there has to be an alternative path of development that you can
adduce. is there another way to avoid domestic political unrest, or
prevent encroachment by other States? Tanzania was the God that
failed.
England was the first and last country
where development takes place without the guiding hand of the State.
in all the other cases, the State is critical.
the late industrializers will attempt
not to repeat the same patterns that England went through, for two
reasons: (1) they won't want to (try to telescope it); (2) they can't
(England captures certain markets, and the Continental countries will
find niches).
you do, of course, have to put certain
preconditions in place. if they're not in place, you won't be able to
avail of the correct technologies (peasants won't use threshers,
etc.). what are these structural preconditions?
the transformation of agriculture
you have to be able to create a
space for your industrialists to grow, so they can survive the
threat of England (protection is critical)
there has to be a State-guided
provision of public goods—of infrastructure.
the key is the first—how do you
transform agriculture? this basically means changing property rights;
taking property away from some people and giving it to others. wiping
out certain classes of people. the difficulty in Europe was that you
had just lived through the biggest cataclysm in modern history (Fr.
Rev), you have the birth of the modern Left.
for the States in Europe, the trouble
becomes two-fold.
capitalists are going to be
reluctant to attack feudalism.
moreover, few states were
bourgeois States; they were dominated by agrarian elites. how are
they going to undertake agrarian reforms, the intent of which is to
eliminate the agrarian elite?
as a result, Continental elites attempt
to do this delicately—slow modernization of agriculture. precisely
because of this, their growth path is slow, and very different from
England. this is what unleashes the tensions that give you 1848,
1871, etc.
the nineteenth century in Europe makes
no sense unless you contextualize it in the political/economic fact
of modernizing while avoiding revolution.
- - - -
into the 80s, the consensus about
France was that the Fr. Rev strengthened peasant property in land.
while that improved the conditions of peasants, in some ways (given
the removal of arbitrary events), its effect on the larger French
economy was largely negative. the idea was that rural France was
largely stagnant for sixty years.
there's been a revisionist account,
that says these were actually relatively efficient – in terms of
land productivity, it's argued. Vivek suggesting that this is a
difficult case to make (food prices were quite high, real wages were
low, capital formation was slow), and has to do with the resurgence
of neo-classical economics.
on Prussia, the suggestion was that
Prussian agriculture grew faster after reforms in 1806, 1811 than it
did before—but not as fast as it did in UK or in USA. both because
of low wages, and because –while farms were relatively large—they
weren't large enough.
the English revolution built an
efficient, extractive State – but this wouldn't have made much of a
difference, had there not been underlying structural revolution. in
fact, England has escaped the Malthusian trap by 1640.
the long-term consequences of the early
centralization/organization of English landlords is important to
explaining a lot of English history.
the Netherlands is politically weaker –
why? it's rate of economic growth is not keeping up with England. and
it's not able to get the most political bang out of economic buck,
which has to do with its State structure (an effectively centralized
State, and a political settlement between the Crown and the landed
nobility). the English nobility is much more invested in the English
State.
what 1688 does is facilitate
State-building (a fiscal-military State). it's less clear how useful
it is for accumulation. the Marxist presumption was that 1640 brought
in capitalism; that's clearly not true. it's partly true that it
facilitates capitalism. it's clear that it's major effect is on the
extraction of revenues, which is indispensable to the creation of the
British empire.
Perry Anderson's argument is that the
reason you get capitalism in W. Europe is the 'availability of a
certain legal resource', which is already in place – had it not
been in place, you would not have had capitalism (Roman law). because
of this, the absolutist State sanctifies private property. (the
absolutist State, in short, was a transitional form which facilitated
the rise of capitalism).
Why is this bogus? first of all, you
don't get capitalism where you have absolutism; there was no
absolutism in England; secondly, if they hadn't had the legal
apparatus, they would have invented it (you don't have a legal
sanction for enclosures).
British railway-building overseas
begins in the post-1850 era, mainly.
Am. Civil War not driven by drive to
centralize; WWI marks the beginning of American centralization.
there is a limit to how much
primary-producers can get from demand from industrial countries,
because of Ingel's Law (limit to how much consumers in industrial
countries will want, of primary goods)