jeffery paige, agrarian revolution (1976)

(6-7): summarizing stinchcome--"family-sized tenancy most likely to produce intense class conflict..."

(7-8): summarizing wolf--"middle peasant provides mass base"

(11): the infamous graph of rural class conflict

(16-17): small-holding as the most efficient form of organization (political factors prevent this form from proliferating, he's suggesting--this is obviously very important in the Angolan case)

(18-25): thus, for noncultivators

1. (18): draws income from land, is economically weak and needs coercion; draws income from capital, is economically strong
   
2. (21): draws income from land is dependent on servile labor; draws income from capital, can tolerate free labor
   
3. (23) zero-sum conflict over static agricultural product; reform possible in other situation
   

(21): graph of three noncultivator attitudes

(22): no labor unions possible here--where dependent on servile labor [?]

(26-34): thus, for cultivating classes

1. (26) land for cultivators important, they will avoid risk; income, they can afford risk
2. (30) importance of land as source of income, stronger incentive for economic competition and weaker incentive for organization (and vice-versa)
3. (34) the greater the importance of land, the more the structural isolation of noncultivators and thus the weaker the pressures for political solidarity
   

(28): quoting Mao on the middle peasants

(33): export agriculture, where there are wages, tends to be equalizing (he puts a lot of emphasis on this, like Marx with working-class, he's saying)

(29): graph of three cultivator attitudes

(40-45): LAND and LAND--agrarian revolt [he's giving the example of El Salvador--but it's difficult, as was noted, to discard this as simple 'agrarian revolt' because it was crushed. it certainly doesn't indicate that we have a quiescent, unorganized, structurally isolated peasantry!]

(42): German Peasant Wars and Bolivian revolution--here the introduction of organizational strength comes from without, he is suggesting. [hone in on this, seems dubious again]

(45): CAPITAL and LAND--the reform commodity movement (focusing on control of the commodity market, not asking for radical demands for redistribution of property)

(48-58): CAPITAL and WAGES---the reform labor movement (a radical class-conscious proletariat focused on limited political questions, because the costs of revolution are higher given the higher probability of reform)

(51-58): discussion the exception of the Malaya plantations [see graph on 57], where 'rubber' means that behavior of the elite is more and more like one who depends on land, due to

1. labor input much less onerous in rubber, thus very difficult for small-holder to cultivate; thus rubber plantations have competition, whereas the tea estates in Ceylon dont
2. rubber took indentured immigrant laborers, servile labor
3. fixed incomes in rubber; expanding in Ceylon

(58): LAND and WAGES--agrarian revolution (you have a well-organized peasantry and a landed elite that can't make concessions, basically)

(62): decentralized sharecropping and irrigated rice production, in particular, will give you revolutionary socialism

(65): graph comparing cotton sharecropping, though, to rice sharecropping (stability of tenure, centralized management, and dependence on landlord in the former). but see graph, since the latter is better on only two out of three.

(66): the migratory labor estate will give you revolutionary nationalism--Algeria and Kenya are the examples. [arguing, on 68, that workers are organized from without--this is the weakest part of the book, since it is impossible to make this distinction in the way that he does

(69): account of the Mau Mau, and the role of the Kikuyu

(70-71): summary of the four outcomes

(95): describing how he distinguishes revolutionary socialism from revolutionary nationalism. [problematize]

(104): quite robust statistical results, having done this

(120-123): summary of chapter 2, his empirical data and the support it lends to chapter 1

(212): Portugese kill 30,000 to 40,000 putting down the Angolan rebellion in 1961

(230): again, SH viable, but the estates were dominant; the graph is useful

(237): estate managers were dependent on colonial controls of (1) labor and controls of (2) land

(250): migratory patterns were prohibiting class-based organization [but here, again, we have to remember that, actually, the class-based organization won!]

(254): no flexibility --> zero-sum conflict

(278): sharp contrast between N. and S. Vietnam

(292): population in N. Vietnam, he's arguing, had a 'conservative interest' in their subsistence plots, and a 'consequent resistance' to political innovation [this is going to be difficult to sustain, my man!]

(300): the point about ecological disaster upsetting the North completely [this is how he makes sense of rebellion, presumably--but weak!]

(322): his highly selective graph of uprisings and 'revolutionary socialist events'

(324): important--here is the most odd aspect of his argument, where the claim is that there was a military dimension to the base in the North, but a political aspect to the insurgency in the South. [interrogate here]

- - - -

[1] 'political organization' from outside vs. from inside--particularly apparent in the case of Vietnam. on the one hand, they had mass support; on the other hand, they were a party 'imposed' in any normal sense of the word. his argument actually hinges on the very thin presentation of 'revolutionary socialist events'

[2] the notion of 'agrarian revolt', and how this squares with anticipated apathy in the 'LAND and LAND' case?

[3] market as enabling reformism. as skocpol rightly says, the market can put inordinate pressures and make upper-classes more stubborn than ever.

[4] wolf and skocpol talk of the importance of a lack of repression in allowing political organization to build--this is fundamentally why the middle peasant matters for wolf, he can avoid the incompetence that comes with being completely subjugated

[5] confusion of Marxism with Materialism--given that there isn't a one-to-one between crops and source of income, might we not have to talk of class struggle as itself determining 'income source'. why is land/income the first mover, always?

[6] in Angola, the importance of political structures in conditioning the character of rebellion, rather than income source. he notes the traditional structures, for example--income source ceases to matter in determining that this was a 'revolutionary nationalist' cast. [and let's not forget, also, that it was the MPLA, the class-conscious segment, that finally won.]

notes from "good muslim, bad muslim" by mahmood mamdani (part III)

(71): Congo became independent on June 30, 1960. Less than two weeks later... its richest province, Katanga, seceded... Led by Moish Tshombe... trained by officers from Belgium, the former colonial power there. Katanga's mines were operated by a Belgian company... in which the Rockefellers were soon to acquire a major interest. Late in the summer of 1960, the Eisenhower administration concluded that Patrice Lumumba... was 'an African Castro' and must be eliminated... On August 18, following a National Security Council briefing, Eisenhower asked his aides whether 'we can't get rid of this guy.' (... [Belgium/US collusion to kill Lumumba]) With Lumumba out of the way, in December 1962 President Kennedy concurred with the use of UN troops to quash the Katangan rebellion. In May 1963, a grateful Kennedy welcomed Mobutu in the White House: 'General, if it hadn't been for you, ... the Communists would have taken over. (72): By the end of 1963, anti-Mobutu rebellion broke out in Kwilu, led by Pierre Mulele, a prominent Lumumbist. The rebels were poorly armed, and there was no evidence of outside involvement. But the CIA did intervene on the government's behalf... By October 1964, the CIA estimated the humber of mercenaries in Conto at more than one thousand... Washington was clear from the outset that there would by no US citizens among the mercenaries. Without American support, however, the mercenaries would have been lame. Four US C-130s with American crews transported mecenaries and their equipment across the west-east span of Congo, roughly the same distance as from Paris to Moscow.
(77): [In Angola], Washington was determined to block any possibility of the MPLA coming to powe, having identified it as a Soviety proxy... Washington's preferred option was to give covert support to the two movements that were opposed to MPLA: the Front for National Liberation of Angola (FNLA), which operated more or less as a surrogate of Congo's General Mobutu, and the Union for the Total Dependence of Angola (Unita), which had few external contacts apart from fledgling ones with apartheid South Africa.... Meanwhile, instead of fighting MPLA, FNLA and Unita took to fighting each other. Faced with an ignominious end, Kissinger opted to back a proxy invasion by regular South African forces.... South African troops entered Angola in mid-October 1975, and Cuban troops followed in early November.
(80): On February 10, 1976, the US Congress passed the Clark Amendment, prohibiting any covert aid to any side in the Angolan civil war. The next month, on March 31, the UN Security Council branded South Africa the aggressor and demanded that it compensate Angola for war damages...
(81): The Angolan fiasco reinforced the lessons of Vietnam, but those lessons provoked contradictory interpretations by the executive branch and by Congress, each asserting a different influence on post-Vietnam US foreign policy... Pulbic resistance... was echoed in Congress with the election of a host of antiwar legislators and led to a number of changes: the draft was abolished; the Pentagon's budget for special operations was cut; the CIA's paramilitary capabilities were reduced and its activities subjected to congressional oversight; and the president was required by the War Powers Act to seek congressional approval before any extended commitment of US troops overseas.... The clearest expression of this surge in antiwar sentiment was the amendment of the Freedom of Information act and the passage of the Clark Amendment. The two years and three months between the passage of the 1973 War Powers Act and the 1976 Clark Amendment marked the high point of the antiwar movement that swept the United States.
(83): Enacted in 1976, the Clark Amenment was repealed in 1985.
(87): CIA chief William J. Casey eventually took the lead in orchestrating support for terrorist and proterrorist movements around the world--from Renameo in Mozambique to Unita in Angola, and from contras in Nicaragua to the mujahideen in Afgahnistan--through third and fourth parties. In a nutshell, after defeat in Vietnam and the Watergate scandal at home, the US government decided to harness and even cultivate terrorists in the struggle against guerillas who had come to power and regimes it considered pro-Soviet.
(91): A State Department consultant who interviewed refugees and displaced persons concluded that Renamo was responsible for 95% of the instances of civilian abuse inthe war in Mozambique, including the murder of as many as ten thousand civilians.
(91): Political terror had brought a kind of war never befroe seen in Africa. The hallmark of the terror was that it targeted civilian life: blowing up infrastructure such as bridges and power stations, destroying health and educational centers, mining paths and fields, and kidnapping civilians--particularly children--to press-grang them into recruits. Terrorism distinguished itself from guerilla struggle by making civilians its preferred target. If left-wing guerillas claimed that they were like fish in water, right-wing terrorists were determined to drain the water--that is, civilian life--so as to isolate and eliminate the fish. What is now termed collateral damage was not an unfortunate by-product of the war; it was the very point of terrorism.
(95): The CIA and the Pentagon called terrorism by another name: "low-intensity conflict" (LIC). The move from counterinsurgency to low-intensity conflict signified a strategic reorientation in US war strategy...
(97): With the shift in military strategy to rollback, a clear distinction was made between counterinsurgency and low-intensity conflict: the ambition of counterinsurgency during the Vietnam era had been to defeat revolutionary insurgents; LIC aimed to undermine revolutionary governments, not just movements.
(109): Following the 1982 coup that installed Montt as dictator of Guatemala, Pat Roberston and other Christian-right leaders lobbied succssfully for the resumption of US military aid to the country. when Montt's army annihilated entire Indian villages, Gospel Outreach members defended the 'scorched earth' campaign in religious terms. One enthusiastic pastor put it: 'The army doesn't massacre the Indians. It massacres demons, and the Indians are demons possessed; they are communists.'
(110-111): Israel emerged as a significant military supplier to El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua in the late seventies and early eighties after those countries were found guilty of human rights violations and the Carter administration terminated military aid to all three... As 'a quid pro quo for El Salvador's decision to move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem,' Israel supplied the military regime 'with over 80% of its weaponry for the next several years, including napalm for use against the Salvadoran civilian population'... Israel moved into Nicaragua as soon as the Carter administration cut off aid: 'Israel sold Somoza 98% of the weapons he used against the Nicaraguan population' between September 1978 and his ouster the following July.
(111): Israel's military links with Iran began with the Iraq-Iran War... Retired General Aharon Yariv... told a conference at Tel Aviv University in late 1986 that 'it would be a good idea if the Iran-Iraq wars ended in a tie, but it would be even better if it continued.' Israel and the United States shared the same strategic objective: to prolong the Iraq-Iran War as long as possible. To realize that objective, each armed a different side.
(116): [In Nicaragua] When it came to the practice of terror, governments and private groups shared the same minimal objective: to put into question the ability of a government in power to ensure security of person and property for the population it claimed to represent.
(118) [In sum] The United States' embrace of terror can be plotted as a learning curve that went through three successive phases of the late cold War, from southern Africa to Central America and central Asia. Each phase can be identified with a dicstinct lesson. If the patronage of terror in the opening phase was shy, more like the benign and permissive tolerance of the practices of an aggressive regional ally--apartheid south Africa--the Unites States moved to a bold and brazen embrace of terror when it came to the counter-revolutionaries in Central America, combining it with patronage of an illict trade in cocaine as the preferred way of financing its covert operations. It was, however, in the closing phase of the Cold War that the United States came to see the embrace of terror as the means to an international public good. It did this in two ways: by privatizing and by internationalizing the main operations in the war. Whereas both tendencies were already present in US support of the contras, each truly blossomed only with the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan, which was so ideologized that it was seen less and less as a national-liberation struggle and more and more as an international crusade: a jihad.
(120-121): The revolutions of 1979 had a profound influence on the conduct of the Afghan War. The Iranian revolution led to a restructuring of relations between the United States and political Islam. Prior to it, America saw the world in rather simple terms: on one side was the Soviet Union and militant Third World nationalism, which America regarded as a Soviet tool; on the other side was political Islam, which America considered an unqualified ally in the struggle against the Soviet Union. Thus, the United States supported the Sarekat-i-Islam against Sukarno in Indonesia, the Jamaat-i-Islaami against Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in Pakistan, and the Society of Muslim Brothers against Nasser in Egypt.... Israeli intelligence allowed Hamas top operate unhindered during the first intifada--letting it open a university and bank accounts and even possibly ehelping it with funding--only to confront a stronger Hamas as the organizer of the second intifada.
(126-127): 'literally days after the Soviet invasion, Carter was on the telephone with Zia offering him hundreds of millions of dollars in economic and military aid in exchange for cooperation in helping rebels.' Zia held out for more, and the Carter-Zia relationship remained lukewarm. The real warming came with the Reagan administration, which offered Pakistan 'a huge, six-year economic and military aid package which elevated Pakistan to the third largest recipient of US foreign aid'--after Israel and Egypt.
(127-128): Historically, the tradition of 'lesser jihad' itself comprises two different--and conflicting--notions. The first is that of a just war against occupiers, whether nonbelievers or believers. There were four such just wars: Saladin's jihad against the Crusaders in the twelfth century, the Sufi jihad against enslaving aristocracies in West Africa in the seventeenth century, the Wahabi jihad against Ottoman colonizers in the Arabian peninsula in the eighteenth century, and the Mahdi's anticolonial struggle against the combination of Turko-Egyptian and British power in late nineteenth century Sudan... The second, conflicting, tradition is that of a permanent jiad against doctrinal tendencies in Islam officially considered 'heretic.' This is a tradition with little historical depth in Islam.... [T[he notion of a standing jihad--a state institution in defense of state interests--is identified less with historical Islam than with the later history of the House of Saud and the state of Saudi Arabia.
(128): The Afghan jihad was in reality an American jihad, but it became that fully only with Reagan's second term in office. In March 1985, Reagan signed National Security Decision Directive 166, authorizing 'stepped-up covert military aid to the mujahideen, and it made clear that the secret Afghan war had a new goal: to defeat troops in Afghanistan through covert action and encourage a Soviet withdrawal.' The redefined war was taken over by CIA chief William Casey, who undertook three significant measures in 1986. The first was to convince Congress to step up American involvement by providing the mujahideen with American advissers and American-made Stinger antiaircraft missiles. The second was to expand the Islamic guerilla war from Afghanistan into the Soviet republics of Tajikisan and Uzbekistan, a decision reversed when the Soviet Union threatened to attack Pakistan in retaliation. The thrid was to step up the recruitment of radical Islamists from around the world to come train in Pakistan and fight alongside the mujahideen.
(131): Beyond the front-line proxy states and their intelligence agencies, increasingly the intermediaries were private institutions, both religious and secular. The overall effect was progressively to privatize the war on an international basis. From this dynamic emerged the forces that carried out the operation we know as 9/11.
(132): The numbers recruited and trained were impressive by any reckoning: the estimate of foreign radicals 'directly influenced by the Afghan jihad' is upwards of one hundred thousand.
(133): Though Osama bin Laden had been a student of Sheikh Abdullah Azzam, the first Afghan-Arab gatekeeper of the jihad in the mid-eighties, a break between Azzam and bin Laden came twoards the end of the Afghan jihad. The parting of the ways was the result of a disagreement in 1989 over the future of the jihad: bin Laden 'envisioned an all-Arab legion, which eventually could be used to wage jihad in Saudi Arabia and Egypt,' whereas Azzam 'strongly opposed making war against fellow Muslims.' Soon after, Azzam and two of his sons were blown up by a car bomb as they were driving to a mosque in Peshawar. A meeting was held toward the end of 1989 in the town of Khost to decide on the future of the jihad... [A] new organization was created in the meeting[:]... al-Qaeda, 'the Base.'

(134): [T]he Tablighi Jamaat, with headquarters in Pakistan and branches all over the world, [was] founded in 1926 by a Muslim scholar, Maulana Mohammad Ilyas, to 'purify' borderline Muslims 'who had retained many of the customs and religious practices from their Hindu past.