collected snippets of immediate importance...


Showing posts with label welfare state. Show all posts
Showing posts with label welfare state. Show all posts

Thursday, April 15, 2010

michael goldfield, "worker insurgency, radical organization, and new deal labor legislation" (1989)

(1258): thesis--'labor militance' and 'radical organization' did have a major influence on the passing of the 1935 NLRA. this opens up questions for (1) the study of US politics and (2) the study of the modern State.

(1258): noting that, prior to the 1930s, unions were de facto illegal.

(1259): skocpol's explanation for the NLRA, in four parts
  1. state as potentially autonomous
  2. new deal period as a time in which the state was quite autonomous from social influence
  3. against six contending explanations: not (1) multi-interest reform coalition; (2) roosevelt; (3) liberal corporate elites; (4) capital-intensive industries; (5) working-class disruption, a la Piven/Cloward; (6) working-class strength, i.e., in order to control workers.
  4. key is understanding the 'autonomous' milieu in which robert wagner operated; particularly autonomous at this time, in fact, due to widespread state incapacity.
(1262): key--goldfield wants to distinguish between four kinds of influence that capitalists can have over the State.
  1. providing impetus for a bill to pass
  2. dominating the content of a bill
  3. the policy-outcome of a bill is what was wanted
  4. the ability to block legislation, to force compromises, and otherwise control the decision-making agenda.
(1262-1263): key argument is that skocpol says that the state is autonomous because no one has a strong form of influence3--but goldfield's argument is that this misses influence1, influence2, and weak forms of influence3

(1263): similarly, capitalist opposition is not simply influence4, but can be a 'whole family of activities'

(1264-1265): four understandings of labor influence
  1. becoming a rival 'power elite'. this has "virtually never happened," and is not the argument. many who attempt to attack the notion that the w-class had something to do with the new deal, though, attack this straw man.
  2. the Sweden model (negotiations with elites on behalf of w-class). but this is not applicable to workers' insurgency, he's noting
  3. piven/cloward disruption model--too much emphasis on spontaneity, misunderstands the degree to which protest was organized.
concessions granted by the government in order to stem working class militance and organized radicalism. insurgency can change capital's preferences [this is what he wants to argue.]

(1265-1268): there are three arguments against labor influence. goldfield does a very good job, here, of showing them to be untenable.
  1. legislation preceded upsurge--well, NLRB actually settled very few cases until 1937, coming at the very end of the '34-'38 upsurge. the dam was broken without the help of the NLRB.
  2. labor was too weak
  3. causality, in fact, goes the other way--in fact, NLRA could actually be called responsible for inhibiting the further growth if we follow Skocpol's logic, re: the '38 downturn. but she's wrong, and this would be mistaken.
(1268-1268): the counter-model, in five parts
  1. labor legislation was a result of interaction between labor movement, radical organizations (CP), liberal reformers, government officials.
  2. the impetus for the passage was a direct result of the broad labor upsurge, conflicts within labor movement, and growing influence of radicalism
  3. the ties of reformers to the AFL leaders are central--they actually had narrow room for maneuver, contra skocpol
  4. the legislation itself was not so radical, nor was it so unambiguously pro-labor
  5. the key is understanding two aspects of labor's development: (1) the unemployed movement, farmer-labor party, etc. -- added breadth and broad-based support to labor upsurge; (2) tremendous conflict within the labor movement, with a conservative AFL and more
(1270-1276): the model depends on three linkages
  1. connection between labor upsurge and social movements (unemployed and CP, farmers' movements, etc.)
  2. political conflict within the labor movement, with power shifting left (strikes as 'grim reaper' for the AFL)
  3. these phenomena had an impact on the reform process (it truly alarmed elites--reform was a more compelling option than repression, becase they actually thought revolution was on the cards. this is what the AFL was telling them, too. reformers were terrified.)
(1278): acknowledging that conjunctural factors are important, too. doesn't mean to discount those. [maybe a way to bring in the ferguson]
thomas ferguson, from normalcy to new deal

(45): importance of looking not just at labor policy, but also foreign economic policy (which was "so spectacularly" a hallmark of the later new Deal)

(46): important--what stands out is the novel type of 'political coalition' built by Roosevelt: a 'historical bloc' of capital-intensive industries, investment banks, and internationally oriented commerical banks. this piece is a "formal theory" of industrial partisan preference as the "joint consequence" of class conflict and the differential impact of the world economy" [this last part is key--without class conflict, none of this applies]

(47-48): a theory of class coalitions in two parts
  1. a static theory: two axes--first (49), the overarching question is the exact 'price' that businesses have to pay to obtain support from the workforce. again, this will vary, he's arguing, by the nature of your industry (two extreme example--robot workforce or machinery-less labor process); second (53), another question has to concern the position of various firms within the world economy (internationalists vs. nationalists).
  2. a dynamic theory: the system of '96 bloc was premised on an old, protectionist and labor-intensive bloc. but there was a transition to the capital-intensive, internationalist bloc (the two ideal transitions are via boom and via crisis (56-57)), leading up to the new deal. much of the piece concerns itself with the specifics of this transition.
(58-59): in event of depression--if world trade contracts, 'economic nationalism', at first, is likely to grow. but it will also lead to secondary crises, most notably over money supply--many industries (and most people, in fact) will want lower interest rates, eventually, since deflation is seen as determinental (especially for capital-intensive industries). yet this is not in the interests of big international banks, insurance companies and bond holders.

(62): historically, the system of '96 collapsed in three stages
  1. period immediately following WWI, and the boom--an emergent multinational bloc and the weakening of the old coalition (see pg 70)
  2. after great crash of 1929, division on the question of the gold standard
  3. slowly emerged the american political world as is currently known
(64): Banks needed Europeans to export surpluses, to pay back loans, so they had an interest in lowering tarriffs (presumably this is counteracted to the extent that they have given loans to companies who depend on tarriffs)

(83): as i am understanding this, abandonment of the gold standard was an attempt to kickstart 'inflation'--to seek their independence from the 'money market', in effect (French and British threatened a run on gold)

(85): first new deal coalition--initially the NRA (1933) pleased the economic nationalists, but began to self-destruct from the moment in came into operation

(87): second new deal coalition--first successful capital-intensive led political coalition (here is where we get NLRB and Wagner and whatnot, in 1935)

(89): the opposition to all this was a bloc of protectionist and labor-intensive industries

(93-94): four conclusions
  1. by 1938, a 'system of '36' was in place--social welfare, oil price regulation, free trade, even 'keynesianism'
  2. we need to specify the role that labor played in shaping the new deal, integrating it into the differential cost-benefit framework specified here.
  3. note the inadequacy of traditional ways of conceptualizing business (big vs. small, monopoly vs. competitive)
  4. this study has implications for contemporary politics--how much we don't know about events we've studied (noting the archival material he waded through)

Thursday, March 25, 2010

block, "the ruling class does not rule: notes on the marxist theory of the State"

(51-52): two elements of an alternative theory
  1. different way of conceptualizing the relationship between State and class
  2. elaboration of a structural framework that makes sense of why the State is a capitalist State
(52): capitalism's capacity to rationalize itself is the outcome of conflict between three agents:
  1. capitalist class
  2. state managers
  3. working-class
(53): instrumentalist theory neglects two things:
  1. the ideological character of the state--the State may be an instrument, but it also strives to appear otherwise. why?
  2. to act in the general interest of the capitalist class, it must be able to act against the interests of any given capitalist. how? (if it is just an instrument, in other words). the instrumentalist account assumes too cohesive a ruling class.
(54): the key notion, in a more developed, structural framework, is the notion of a division of labor between capitalists and the State (the latter 'manages', so to speak)

(55): using Marx's notion of representation to talk about this structural link between the capitalists and the State

(56): instrumentalism's affinity to reformist socialism--both regard the State as an instrument that is worked on. if the link between the State and the capitalist class could be broken, the working class could wield the State.

(56): certainly, there are subsidiary mechanisms (two, they mention)
  1. direct influence of individual capitalists. also, under this they put the phenomenon of "the revolving door"--capitalists serving in government
  2. bourgeois cultural hegemony (widespread acceptance of certain unwritten rules) [they are saying, though, that this is question-begging, to an extent
(58): the crux--the major structural mechanisms, which have to explain why (1) anticapitalist policies are off the table and why (2) capitalist policies are on said table.
  1. capacity ofState to finance itself through taxation or borrowing depends on the state of the economy.
  2. public support for a regime will decline if the economy declines.
(58-59): in other words, for these reasons, capitalists have to ensure favorable private investment decisions, by capitalists. they have to see to "business confidence" (includes intangibles as well as tangibles)

(60-61): useful account of the danger of left-wing regimes for business confidence--dynamics here are:
  1. left of center government comes in to redistribute income to the poor
  2. business attempts to resist this shift by raising prices
  3. inflation causes people to flee the gov't currency
  4. all this gives the government two choices: (1) reassure the business community and pursue orthodox policies; (2) forge ahead
  5. if it forges ahead, it is faced with a balance of trade deficit problem.
  6. continued inflation continues to cause people to flee the currency, leading it toward monetary/fiscal crisis, as it gets harder and harder for it to get loans.
  7. the government may temper its reformism. or it may forge ahead.
  8. if it forges ahead, it will have to impose serious restrictions on capitalists (price controls, import controls, exchange controls).
  9. all this is a new level of threat for capitalists, and will invite a new level of resistance.
  10. the only alternative left, for the State, is socialism (which, of course, demands a highly politicized and radicalized base). SOCIALISM OR BUST.
(62): none of the preceding requires any sort of conspiracy. this is a structural constraint [of a capitalist State, or a State in capitalism?]

(63-65): here highlighting a dynamic that needs more unpacking--the class struggle, they're saying, impels capitalism in a way that demands a larger and larger role of the State in the economy. more capacity, then, to discipline Capital.

(65): faced with reforms, State managers weigh three things--all these mean that reforms are likely to go in a direction that doesn't damage business confidence but has the effect of expanding State power.
  1. don't want to damage business confidence
  2. do not want class antagonisms to escalate
  3. they recognize that there is potential, through reforms, to expand their own power.
(66): as a rule, major reforms will be difficult. at times where business confidence is not a serious obstacle (war, depression), they are on the cards.

(67): good summary paragraph. two main take-home points:
  1. 'capitalist rationality' emerges out of the three-sided relationship between capitalists, workers, and state managers. state managers seek to maintain the viability of the social order--they don't want to offend business confidence, but also have to rationalize capitalism, at times.
  2. state managers can only act, then, on the terrain marked out by the intersection of two factors: class struggle and the level of economic activity.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

huber and stephens, development and crisis of the welfare state (2001)

(xi): welfare states, especially Nordic ones, as "remarkably resilient"

chapter one: introduction

(1-3): the argument, in nine claims
  1. (1): partisan politics is 'single most important factor that shaped the development of welfare states'. this was strongly related to social structural features (strength of organized labor and religious cleavages). [this is a theoretical contribution, insofar as it stresses the importance of left political power, and not just movement power with infrequent left government--Australia and NZ from 1950-1972 are examples of the latter--see pg. 10, pg. 114, pg. 195. this (and their emphasis on gender) is what principally distinguishes them from the 'political class struggle' school--see pg. 20]. their reflections on CD welfare states vs. SD welfare states fit here, too, since the more universalistic character of the latter has its origins in the fact that it was 'more left', in this sense--see pg. 144, 312-313, where the distinctions are summarized (Netherlands is a CD case where there is constant pressure from SD).
  2. (1): the welfare states required, also, the economy to be embedded in high-productivity, export production regimes (had to maintain high investment and high levels of employment). a 'mutually enabling fit'--see pg. 23. against others (Esping-Anderson), their argument is that the essence of the welfare State is not decommodification, but actually high qualification for the labor market--see pg. 184, pg 334. emphasis is that an individual's separation from the labor market be temporary and involuntary. they try and integrate as large a proportion of the population as possible.
  3. (1): the importance of the partisan character of government (see pg. 305) declines as you move to the post-crisis years, as States have less latitude (leftists less to expand, rightists less to cut). at the same time, they do not go to zero (Nordic states after crisis of early 90's).
  4. (2): immediate cause of retrenchment was a large increase in unemployment (more people dependent on transfers, less people contributing). the exception to this is the US and especially the UK--see pg. 219.
  5. (2): against the orthodox globalization literature, found little support for claim that cutbacks were caused by sharp trade competition. at the same time, it was true that financial deregulation mattered for policy choices--it is more difficult to keep interests low because of threat of exit, see pg. 12). on top of this, globalization did matter to an even greater extent, in Australia and NZ, which hadn't constructed their welfare states on the basis of exposure to the international economy in the same way as the other States.
  6. (2): the structure of decision-making mattered, insofar as constitutions with many 'veto points' both inhibited and slowed the pace of policy change [US and Switzerland vs. UK and Denmark and NZ]. NZ and UK had system-changing retrenchment, something that we can only make sense of if we pay attention to this--see pg. 307, pg. 309
  7. (2): a strong interactive effect of women's labor force participation and social democratic government--i.e., linkages seen in Nordic countries between "social democratic government, increases in participation, women's political mobilization, and social service expansion'. "where women have been more mobilized and allied with political parties that support gender equality..." --see pg. 28, pg. 196.
  8. (2, see also 28-29, 323): found a medium level of path-dependency (not strong, because then you can't make sense of the UK or of New Zealand), owing to four mechanisms. these are four ways in which the claim about the 'long-term effects of partisan government' is operationalized--see pg. 28-29: first, structural constraints (balance of power in society; policy options are limited by the constellation of power in a country in a given period (US labor, Swedish business)); second, ideological hegemony (center of gravity of public opinion, distribution of actors preferences, which can be shaped, also, by historic struggle); third, policy ratchet effects (rapid growth of support for welfare state provisions after their introduction, generating a new political center of gravity); fourth, regime legacies (empowerment of certain social actors who then shape further development; future possibilities for development of the welfare state are determined by what happened previously--each actor begins with the current state as given) [all this is a theoretical contribution, related to the very first point. however it does seem as if some of them are a bit confused; they blur with each other, but no matter.]
  9. (13, 337): a theoretical contribution, but perhaps helpful to think of as a ninth claim--part of 'power constellation theory', of course. they are finding space between the pluralist and Marxist theories of the State--welfare state policy can respond to labor and work against the interests of capital (rather than being 'functional' for capitalist dominance, as Poluantzas put it), without requiring us to be as silly as the pluralists, of course. another way of putting it, as they do in the conclusion: "in the absence of working-class organization, the Marxist theory was correct: Public policy was formed according to the interests of capital". However, if counterhegemony is mobilized through working-class organization and electoral politics, this can change--see pg. 337-338
(3): the theoretical frame, power constellations approach
  1. class power balance
  2. structure of state and of state-society relations
  3. complex of relations amongst systems of states, on an international level
(8-9): two methodological contributions
  1. bringing quantitative and qualitative analysis together
  2. you can miss larger constraints when you analyze simply short-term events (so, for example, you will see little employer opposition in Nordic countries--but this misses how much these employer preferences have been shaped by a longer history)
(11): 'siding' with the political-institutional school, who agree that this wasn't built by bureaucrats...

(12): ok--high-skill high-wage position int he international economy [this clearly isn't open to anyone--how do we run with this?]

(12): welfare state benefits as 'compensation' for wage restraint in export industries

chapter two: theoretical framework and methodological approach

(14): there have been three main theoretical approaches
  1. logic of industrialism--these are byproducts of economic development and its consequences
  2. state-centric--focused on the policy-making role of bureaucrats, who are relatively autonomous from social forces (very different kind of relative autonomy, of course)
  3. political class struggle/power resources--distribution of power between left and right identified as primary determinant of difference in impact of welfare state (see claim one, as summarized above)
(17-18): on class--as elaborated, a fundamentally Weberian theory of class (borrowing Elster--no exploitation). yet when it comes to operationalizing this, they have a more or less Marxist list. acknowledging, also, the critical importance of organization (this is part of a claim highlighting the importance of the point of production--so in that sense, it is possible to think of this as more-or-less Marxist. unpack).

(20): critical contribution--what distinguishes us from the other power resources theory is our focus on political parties. focus on the long-term partisan character of government.

(22): more on path-dependency, policy legacies

(22): more on State structure and 'veto points'

(23): importance of a 'mutually enabling fit' between welfare states and the production regimes in which they're embedded.

(25-26): craft vs. industrial unions -- or, more broadly, centralized vs. decentralized unions (with the former more likely to take a leftist, class-wide perspective). this has at least three effects on labor movement:
  1. more successful at consciousness transformation means more electoral success
  2. more electoral success means more likely to influence state policy
  3. more powerful vis-a-vis capital
(26): and in sum--it is this form of organization of the union movement, its influence on the incumbency of the left, and the possibilities for capital which are highly consequential for the policy regime (we have lost some of the ordering of the argument, here, so think through this)

(31-32): again, more reflections on 'path-dependency'--placing themselves in the middle

(35): a bit on counterfactual reasoning -- the task is to try and imagine what would have happened had the long-term partisan character of government been flipped (if the LP had been in power in Australia from 1950-1972, for example)

(37): Swedish bourgeois parties did not dismantle Welfare State from 1976-1982

chapter four: welfare state and production regimes

(110): thinking of four types of welfare states
  1. social democratic: (1) universalistic entitlements, (2) comprehensiveness of social policy regimes, (3) citizenship based entitlements, (4) high income replacement rates (in pensions, i.e.), (5) emphasis on high levels of publicly delivered social services; (6) gender egalitarianism; (7) policies aimed at labor force training. associated with nationally coordinated market economy with high union coverage and centralized wage bargaining, etc., etc. (details here).
  2. Christian democratic: (1) fragmented entitlements; (2) mostly employment-based entitlements; (3) emphasis on transfers; (4) moderate to high replacement rates; (6) male breadwinner pattern; (7) passive labor market policy.
  3. liberal welfare state: (1) partial program coverage; (2) income or needs testing entitlement; (3) moderate to low replacement rates; (4) few public delivered services; (6) passive family policy; (7) passive labor market policy.
  4. wage earner welfare state (Aus, NZ): (1): partial coverage due to protection given by wage-setting; (2) role for income testing; (3) moderate to low replacement rates; (4) few publicly delivered services ; (6) male breadwinner; (7) passive labor market. liberal market economy with, especially initially, substantial protection to domestic producers.
(112): social democratic states much more equal and had lower levels of poverty than the liberal welfares states. also surprising how 'redistributive' CD welfare states, were.

chapter five: welfare states and production regimes in the golden age

(115-117): sources of SD strength
  1. strong labor movements is critical, undisputed starting-point for social democratic strength (not divided by ideology or confessional--religious homogeneity, in other words).
  2. a divided right helps.
  3. corporatism, where you have strong union movements in export markets that need some coordination.
(119): a break with the 'poor law' tradition--a right not to be poor, rather than saving only the 'deserving poor'

(120): important--legislation more egalitarian than negotiation

(122): SAF aggressiveness was conditioned by SD strength

(123-125): three phases of development, in Sweden
  1. 1945-1955
  2. passage of ATP, in late 1950's
  3. beginning in 1960 which is where you begin to get increased women's participation, which leads to women's mobilization, in turn (late 60s early 70s)
(127): active labor market policy (moving displaced workers to high-productivity sectors, making it impossible for low-productivity enterprises to exist)

(129-130): critical--they had to have a growing market for their products (for Sweden, this was continental Europe)

(135-137): Finland in two phases, pivoting on the 1960s (which is when it became a real Nordic welfare State, as the Left comes to power in 1966--a shift, with this, to one of the highest reinvestment ratios)

(141): a weaker left in Denmark, stronger agrarian interests

(144): key--the CD welfare states, less universalistic, less service oriented, and much less gender egalitarian

(147): 1949 elections was key counterfactual in Germany's case--could have been much more universalistic and solidaristic

(152): German welfare state was getting stronger in the 70s, but then the crisis hit

(156): Austria was closer to SD state than Germany -- mainly because of greater participation of SD in government

(162): Netherlands was more religiously divided--like in Germany, there was a missed opportunity after the war, but the Left was too weak to take advantage

(164): here, more conservative forces had the reins, but were always worried by the serious challenge posed by the Left (this is important to the larger argument)

(169): key--NZ was one of most advanced welfare state in 1950 (labor had been in power for much of the two decades previous--see pg. 174), but degenerated as the international economy took its toll (because it was based on a protected manufacturing sector)

(180): AUS vs. NZ on constitutional structure, reflected in medical outcome (less generous in the former)

(184): key--essence of the welfare state is not decommodification, but high qualification and participation in the labor market

(188): important to remember that the women's mobilizations came from those outside the core of SD welfare state's initial constituency (manufacturing workers). this is why it is particularly important to play close attention to 'interactive effects', rather than read this as a simple consequence of SD.

(189): business was not interested in wasting political capital on chucking things they could not chuck.

(190-194): various examples to illustrate how they see path dependency working out. useful.

chapter 6: welfare state retrenchment

(219): key--welfare states by and large unemployment driven (Denmark, Netherlands as early as 1975; Germany and Australia in the 1980s; Scandinavia in the 1990s). all a pragmatic response to increasing burdens on the welfare state, and declining contributions. exceptions are the US and UK, where these are ideologically-driven.

(220): there was, everywhere, declining public share of health expenditure quite early (70s). explained away by rising medical costs.

(220): partisan effects had disappeared by the 1980s (diminished already in the 1970s)

chapter 7: the politics of welfare states after the golden age

(223): key, crisis of the 1970s brought:
  1. internationalization of trade
  2. internationalization of production
  3. deregulation of financial, capital, currency markets (which has meant, critically, that governments cannot control both the interest rate and the exchange rate--countercyclical monetary and fiscal policy produces an outflow of capital and a downward pressure on exchange rates. in a fixed regime, this will drive the interest rate higher and higher).
  4. decline of industrial, rise of service
  5. decline of Fordism, rise of skill-differentiated manufacture and flexible specialization
(224): globalization refers to the first three components above

(225-226): specific way in which unemployment impacted
  1. fiscal pressures
  2. and the perception that they were permanent problems
(226): not the internationalization of trade, since these were highly open economies already. these countries have been high-skill export economies. [but does this dismiss the argument that they became open to competition?]

(227): capital is not always looking for low wages (most investment flows to OECD countries)

(227-230): key--certainly, the internationalization of capital markets has had a detrimental impact on the generosity of welfare states. you could only keep low interest rates if you were willing to accept a depreciating currency, which would mean, among other things, difficulty importing capital goods, raw materials, etc. [question is how this fits, exactly, in the argument--proximate cause, via unemployment? this seems right, see pg 230]

(230): key, impact on fiscal policy is complicated. it is quite clear that they are saying the latter dynamic prevails in the 1980s and 1990s.
  1. on one hand, should be easier--since the threat of crowding out is less [this seems weak]
  2. on the other hand, fiscal expansion will have to be counteracted by monetary austerity, or else your currency will depreciate (owing to inflation). if you have fixed exchange rates, this will require you to drive up interest rates, counteracting fiscal stimulus. if you have floating exchange rates, your exchange rate will fall, increasing domestic inflation, which threatens to become a vicious cycle.
(230): important--there is a kernel of truth, then, in globalization being linked to retrenchment (lower investment owing to deregulation). but it is a second-order cause, and there are other things that have caused unemployment. [this is more important than they are letting it be, i think--here they are talking about the 'crisis' (fall in investment, capital stock formation, etc.), some of these:
  1. speaking of rising participation rates, but this is limited in its scope.
  2. 'demographic burden'--but not clear, they say, because it is more a question of labor force participation
  3. having grown to limits--but these are political, they are saying
(300): 'modest cuts' vs. (302):widespread cuts (of considerable magnitude, some)

(305): still some partisan impact in the 1990s in Nordic countries

(307, 309): UK and NZ have deep cuts -- this shows that 'political structure' matters.

chapter 8: conclusion

(312-323): repeated summary of the argument

(324): five problems with the American model of neoliberal job growth:
  1. if you account for incarceration, there's nothing special going on
  2. not clear that the American experience is 'replicable', if you think of what happened to UK/NZ, who tried it
  3. costs in terms of poverty and inequality are quite high
  4. increase in inequality is likely to lead to a deterioration in skills
  5. the idea that wages have to be low in service is dubious because service sector is heterogeneous
(325): an essential step has to be increased levels of domestic investment
  1. invest social insurance systems domestically [not already happening?]
  2. return to budge surpluses to bring down interest rates
  3. change financing of social security schemes to ease burden on employers
  4. creation of part-time jobs (two part-time better than one full-time and one employed), as in Netherlands
  5. investment in training
(328): all this is radically different than in UK/US

(334): again, unlike Esping-Anderson, commodification is the heart of the Welfare State, not decommodification.

(340): you have to pay attention to the structure of States (state-centered theory), but not without forgetting power relations

(341, 345): interesting, and worth discussing--in their final restatements, it comes close to a Marxist theory--Nordic states as a compromise between capital and labor, where capital has considerable hegemonic power and states are still structurally dependent on capital. but, they will want to insist, power constellations, only, can make sense of the great distinctions to be made between Sweden and the US (certainly, it does seem like P's functionalism is off-limits; simply not true that the welfare state, also, has not redistributed income, like some old Marxists once thought)

(344): Aus/NZ radically egalitarian in their origins?! Sweden very hierarchical, Norway not. Saying all this to make an important claim about how an inherited political culture cannot explain anything.

Friday, November 6, 2009

mike, nothing to lose but their chains

(3): thesis--"Instead, I consider the inverse question: historically, how did welfare policies condition a working-class party’s success or failure in winning votes? In doing so, this project hypothesizes that private social provisions pushed industrial working-class political history in a radically different direction in the US than in Europe and Australasia."

(6): "The relationship between business and the government in the US, however, was unlike that found in other countries, whose states played a more directive role in providing welfare. The response to the upsurge in labor militancy in the US moved in a sharply different direction. While reformers in the American Association for Labor Legislation sought to establish workingmen’s insurance along the lines of the European model, few of their policies were taken up by the state. Unlike the legislative profiles of nascent welfare states in Europe and Australasia, the US was exemplified by its lack of nationwide public protections for male workers and the elderly."

(7): "But, while European workers found legislative pursuits increasingly rewarding between the 1870s and the 1910s, American workers encountered effective retrenchment. During the 1880s and the early 1890s, the Knights of Labor, the American Federation of Labor and other trade unions won some legislative victories in areas such as legal hour’s limits, prohibitions on sweated labor, prohibitions on company stores, and union protections. But these gains were not sustained, often paltry and too often unenforced. By 1920, the courts struck down roughly three hundred labor laws (Skocpol 1992:227)." [if i read this with skeptical eyes, though, i want more -- i need convincing that this wasn't the same in other countries--proving that there was a serious, qualitative difference, rather than a difference in degree]

(7): key--"Major industrialists, eager to check and repel labor militancy and a short-lived tide of government regulation, proffered welfare capitalism as an alternative to the welfare statism they saw taking form abroad."

(9-10): "Ultimately, the US developed a welfare regime with three main features: a network of minimal direct social spending programs, a constellation of indirect or “hidden” state interventions through tax breaks and regulations, and, most importantly for this project, the domination of private social protections in large firms (Hacker 2002:11)."

(11): I hypothesize:
  1. Firm intervention into social policy in the US was sufficient to obstruct the consolidation and expansion of industrial working-class votes for the Socialist Party in national elections.
  2. State intervention into social policy in non-American industrializing countries did not inhibit the political mobilization of workers support for working-class parties.
  3. Private welfare measures were abandoned at different rates across firms (Moriguchi 2005), and it was precisely their disparate rate of adoption in the US that helps explain the uneven development of industrial working-class based politics at the municipal level.
(12): three ways in which private social insurance obstructs w-class party formation:
  1. "Wider income disparity generated by private social benefits act to disincentivize the formation of class-based politics by widening inequality and exposure to risk between working people."
  2. "serves to secure employee allegiance to particular firms. In more extreme cases, it disincentivizes unionization and independent political action by allowing the firm to only award those employees willing to reject such strategies for maximizing their income and benefits."
  3. "they isolate employee grievances at the level of the firm or plant. If an employee wants to negotiate the conditions of their benefits, the individual firm is the natural object of contestation. On the other hand, public social benefits constitute the state as the key arena for employee voice over the conditions of their benefits."
(14-15): "The potential for industrial working-class support for working-class parties across all industrializing contexts was driven by two interconnected economic and social factors:
  1. Industrialization of key economic sectors that were previously under the control of skilled artisans and craftsmen resulted in intense deskilling and restructuring after 1870; the workers in these firms became the main supporters of working-class parties in all advanced capitalist countries.
  2. Economic dislocation, a series of crises in the late 1800s, drove people to seek alternative strategies for securing their economic livelihood in labor militancy and political action."
(16-?): introducing five positions in the literature that try and explain this
  1. "Institutionalists are dominant in the American exceptionalism debate. They view state structures and state policies as independent and determinative forces on party formation and success." [electoral system, early suffrage stopped party formation] (16-17)
  2. "Repressionists argue that in America, there was much more repression of working-class movements than elsewhere, which made potential working-class political activists skeptical about the effectiveness of building parties." (17)
  3. "Culturalists, on the other hand, argue from a large range of different vantage points. But, what unites their claims is the notion that unique systems of self-understanding in the US, either by the entire population or critical sections of it, precluded the support of working-class parties. A dominant position here is that since the US lacked a feudal past, the liberal tradition that emerged undermined the class-based grievances found elsewhere that gave working people a reason to support working-class parties." [feudal shackles...] (17-18)
  4. "Another set of explanations suggest that the tactical decisions of both influential labor leaders and the leaders of the Socialist Party can explain the failure of working-class politics." (18-19)
  5. "Finally, economic arguments share a common failing with the rest of the literature in that they make broad claims that cannot account for internal variation. A frequently cited explanation rests on the claim that American workers simply had fewer economic grievances than their counterparts." (20) ["Others demonstrate that a surge in Socialist Party votes in both Europe and America corresponded with an increase in working-class income and living standards (Sturmthal 1973; Fetscher 1973). And critically, from my perspective, it is unable to account for internal variation within the US context."]
(29): "However, it also lays a theoretical groundwork for subsequent explanations for the more general weakness of class-based politics throughout America’s history since the turn of the 20th century. So, while this project offers a historically conditional theory of the failures and successes of the American Socialist Party in industrial working-class communities, in the end it aims to provide theoretical concepts useful for the study of present controversies concerning working-class political behavior and business unionism." [how much will you focus on this?]

-----

questions:

1. possibility that you are pushing back the causal chain -- i.e., you have identified something that will itself need to be explained. in fact, it could be that the five explanations you identify might work through this mechanism, that you are identifying. this does not compromise the research, of course, but raises questions about the scope of the conclusions you will be able to make.
2. in other words, when you switch from asking how w-class activism forced welfare provision, to asking how the type of welfare provision influenced w-class activism, there is a way in which you're framing makes the whole thing too neat. how do we explain the difference in the type of welfare provision, systematically? otherwise it becomes a kind of exogenous variable.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

saskia sassen, the global city

xix-xxii: the seven hypotheses

(1) - geographic dispersal of economic activities is a key factor feeding the importance of central corporate functions;
(2) - central functions are so complex that large global firms are compelled to outsource them to 'highly specialized service firms.'
(3) - these highly specialized service firms are 'subject to agglomeration economies.' as a result, "global cities are, in this regard, production sites for the leading information industries of our time."
(4) - the more headquarters outsource their most complex functions, "the freer they are to opt for any location" for the work actually done in their headquarters;
(5) - specialized service firms are engaged in providing a 'global service,' which encourages global city-global city partnership;
(6) - a growing number of high level professionals in cities "have the effect of raising the degree of spatial and socioeconomic inequality evident in these cities."
(7) - the dynamics described in hypothesis six lead to "the growing informalization of a range of economic activities..."

(3): cities' four-fold new functions: (1) highly concentrated command points; key locations for finance; (3) sites of production of innovations; (4) markets for the products and innovations of this new services economy.

(5): "the fundamental dynamic posited here is that the more globalized the economy becomes, the higher the agglomeration of central functions in a relatively few sites, that is, in global cities... there is a new logic of concentration."

(5): the "global city" as a site of production of "highly specialized services and financial goods" [note, this does not tell us anything about cities, in general--in that sense the explanandum is not the "urban," but an atypical subset]

(6): wanting to focus on the "practice" of global control--"the work of producing and reproducing the organization and management of a global production system and a global marketplace for finance," a process in which the "global city" has a critical role. [she is less interested, she says, in the 'familiar issues' of the power of larger corporations. but is this simply an excuse to dull the heinousness of what she's describing?]

(8): question, also, about the relationship between the city and the nation-state

(10): and finally, the morphology of the new service sector--what about the low-wage jobs that supply this high-wage service sector?

(12): important--here some reflections on why this transition has happened, and how to theorize it. it is not the case that new industries have emerged to replace old ones; at least it is not that simple. what has happened, instead, is a "deep structural process of decline," in which "growth" and "decline" have to be theorized more holistically. simply and specifically, i guess, this is the idea that we are seeing the geographic dispersal of manufacturing, which has engendered the need for the new. [the question, though, is why we need to see the 80's and 90's as "high-flying," rather than periods of stagnation. this motivates a question re: whether the change she is documenting can be attributed to technological shifts, as is somewhat implied, or whether there's something else, more internal to the pure dynamics of capitalism, which has spurred it. i suppose the two theorizations are not mutually exclusive, but there is a sense in which sassen has evacuated the latter paradigm from her analysis.]

(12-13): more on the systemic connection between 'decline' and 'growth'. four working hypotheses:
(1) geographic dispersal of manufacturing, which contributed to the decline of old industrial center [and] [created] a demand for expanded central management...
(2) the growth of the financial industry... benefited from policies and conditions often harmful to other industrial sectors, notably manufacturing (do we mean hiking the interest rates in '79?)
(3) "a transformation in the economic relationships among global cities, the nation states where they are located, and the world economy..."
(4) a "new class alignment" in the global city [a species of "structured coherence," perhaps?]

(19): it might be important to clarify the causal connections between these three observations, because elsewhere it seems to be distinct from what she is proposing here: "a leading argument in this book is that the spatial dispersion of economic activities and the reorganization of the financial industry are two processes that have contributed to new forms of centralization insofar as they have occurred under conditions of continued concentration in ownership or control." [recall panitch and gindin, in other words, who suggest that 'the reorganization of the financial industry' was necessary for Capital to come to terms with 'transnationalization'. also, is the last clause suggesting a positive, normative project--that this process could (and should) have happened under different "conditions [of] ... ownership [and] control."

(20): what we have seen, in effect, is a de-centering of transnational banks (and the TNC's, of course), and the concomitant rise of the "major centers of finance."

(19): interesting, if cryptic sentence: "whether internationalization is essential to the major outcomes, notably the acute pressure, toward agglomeration in leading cities, is difficult to establish and is perhaps a question of theory." [what to make of this? we can have the global city without globalization? unlikely. but this is why her doing the work of theory would be immensely helpful; is she eschewing that task even though she thinks it worthwhile?]

(20): question of the concept of "productive innovation" in finance, insofar as she is anticipating the possibility of "non-productive innovation." what is the distinction? hasn't recent history proven the fallacies of celebrating precisely this same fact of innovation, insofar as it has proved to be 'smoke' and 'mirrors'? or are we speaking of a subset of the kind of innovation that she wants to speak about. [my position seems justified--"innovations" are made explicit on page 21 as "derivatives" and "hedge funds"]

(21): explicitly naming the 'long wave' objection (what is different about this round of 'financialization' from what transpired at the turn of the century?)

chapter two


(23): "capital mobility" is not simply the ability of capital to move across space; the concept must also assimilate the fact of increasing centralization.

(26): mention of 'transnationalization' as a political strategy to break 'fordism', but also a technical consequence of new strategies that were "designed to separate low-wage, routine tasks from highly skilled tasks..."

(28-29): seems too lumpy -- discussing "transnationalization" at the same time as mentioning how many women work from their suburban homes? i understand the affinity, but could this not be said to be symptomatic of some larger failings to systematize data with an appropriately theoretical frame?

(30): sassen's notion of the "redeployment of growth poles," which helps us observe that geographic dispersal has gone hand-in-hand with increasing concentration of capital ["such a parallel decentralization of ownership has not taken place. The large size of firms has made it possible to internalize transaction and circulation costs, thereby reducing the barriers to capital circulation and raising capital's ability to equalize the profit rate." [marxist commitments, clearly...]

(31): perhaps we can start, here, to ask what "productive innovation" in finance might mean? "opening up of regional markets"; "offshore banking" --> all leading to a "renewed concentration in and orientation toward major financial centers, beginning in the early 1980s... not mere geographic retrenchment but was in fact associated with new forms of capital mobility..." "The central activity is now the buying and selling of instruments over and over again, thereby maximizing the circulation of financial capital.."

(32): "increased capital mobility has brought about a homogenization of economic space..." [but, in a way compatible with uneven development, of course.]

(32): important--quite bleak implication for one type of development strategy, here. peripheral labor can now be employed without ever escaping its peripherality. no more "labor aristocracy," which she identifies as a very specific historical phenomenon. technological/communication revolution has enabled high-tech industries to incorporate sweatshop labor. this tendency towards dispersal, she's implying, "neutralizes the politico-economic consequences that Marx associated with the generalized increase in the capital intensity of production..."

(33): labor in this service economy, more mobile/transnational/unequal -- (1) both highly trained personnel, and (2) unskilled service labor

(33-36): useful summary of argument of chapter 2

chapter 10: a new urban regime?


(329): "the most pronounced development is the massive increase in the volume of transactions of the financial industry, by far the most significant international industry."

(330): "most foreign direct investment is now in services."

(331): "the weight of economic activity since the 1980s has shifted from production places, such as Detroit and Manchester, to centers of finance and highly specialized services."

(331): her central amendment to a traditional 'world-systems' narrative--the need for 'control'/'organization' is not inherent in fragmentation ("cannot be taken for granted") but needs to be produced.

(331): "global cities as sites for the production of global control capability."

(332): a list of the kind of firms that comprise this "global control capability"--isn't this a bit underwhelming, if we're honest? -- "advertising, accounting, legal services, business services, certain types of banking, engineering, and architectural services."

(332): hmm--on the one hand she is drawing attention to the enormous importance of finance, as service. but on the other hand, she doesn't want to include the production of financial instruments as a "service." the question, then, is obvious: is the popular narrative that it is these instruments and the games they play that account for the enormity of financial activity? or is it actually true that the services that actually comprise global control capability dominate the world economy? the latter seems very counter-intuitive, especially if you consider the amount of money that was trading on the derivatives market (220 trillion dollars, or something like this...), and all this. having said this, it does seem like she acknowledges this, to an extent; i would only say that what i've read of her argument does not foreground the parasitism of this fact.

(332): the potential for other global cities, besides the trinity -- the possibility of regional and national markets that need a more locally-oriented site of control capability.

(333): and KEY--her larger argument assimilates the understanding that manufacture and the proletariat, in fact, HAVE NOT declined. "I argue it is these transformations that constitute the shift to a service-dominated economy, rather than the mere fact of a shift in employment from manufacturing to services, a process usually centered on the growth of consumer services. On the contrary, I posit that the period of massive growth of consumer services is associated with the expansion of mass production in manufacturing." [but this does raise the question: why do we need to speak about this as "an economic system dominated by such management, servicing, and financial activities? see page 334] see also discussion below

(333): between the global cities, the emergence of a "transterritorial economy" [though not, at all, a self-sufficient economy, remember--it could not exist without manufacturing]

(334): important--an explicit consideration of the place of manufacturing economy. and again, the implications are bleak, insofar as they portend an increasing divergence between the fortunes of the global city and the nation. "Yes, manufacturing matters, but from the perspective of finance and producer services, it does not have to be national... One of the key points developed in this book is that much of the new growth rests on the decline of what were once significant sectors of the national economy, notably key branches of manufacturing that were the leading force in the national economy and promoted the formation and expansion of strong middle class."

(335): MOST IMPORTANT--new, more severe forms of "increased social and economic polarization" associated with this transformation. and this, of course, may one day call into question the foundations of the new growth, too. "At what point do these tensions become unbearable? At what point is the fact of homelessness a cost also for the leading growth sectors? How many times do high-income executives have to step over the bodies of homeless people till this becomes an unacceptable fact or discomfort? At what point does the increasing poverty of large numbers of workers begin to interfere with the performance of the core industries either directly or indirectly? It is perhaps the social involution that this mode of growth brings about in significant sectors of a national economy that may be more devastating to its own growth than the decline of manufacturing at the national level, since there is significant manufacturing growth globally, and in that sense there is grist for the mill of the producer services complex."

(335-336): and then, also, the obvious tension between the "growth of these leading 'industries'" and the decline of the health of the nation-state (in burgeoning budget deficits due to the decline of national economic sectors)

(336): barriers to entry, which is critical for the absurd hacks who want to transform this into a normative project ("And most cities lack the mix of resources which creates organizational complexity in leading cities. We are entering a whole new phase in the development of urban economic cities.")

(337-338): narrative of suburbanization and the rise of the middle-class in the US; in UK, "social provisioning" in the form of a "national public health system" and "public housing"; in Japan, "massive reinvestment to expand the infrastructure for production rather than that for social reproduction."

(339): a move away from production for internal consumer markets, and towards international markets as symptomatic of the larger shift away from the Fordist phase.

(340): IMPORTANT, even if she doesn't answer it, she is asking exactly the right question, here: "This development [away from Fordism] raises a number of questions about the intersection of economics and politics and about the 'natural' tendencies of capitalist economies. Was the social compact of the postwar period the result of the weight of local politics in a phase of economic development that gave local claims unusual powers? And is what we are seeing today--increased economic and social polarization--the 'natural' outcome of the operation of the economic system when political claims carry little weight?"

(340): identifiying an "ideology of globalism," within which "localities are seen as powerless in an era of global economic forces."

(340-341): important--high-income workers vs. management of these service industries--argument, here, is that there is an important distinction to be drawn between the two. the former have no claims over their places of work; they can be fired at the drop of the hat. they are tied to it through "conspicuous consumption," which "serves a strong ideological function of securing the alliance of these workers." [many questions, of course, but perhaps useful to use this as a way into the question of "productive" and "unproductive" labor -- the argument is that "they are ultimately a stratum of extremely hard-working people whose alliance to the system leads them to produce far more profit than they get back in their admittedly very high salaries and bonuses." but how? is their labor not more destructive, than productive, insofar as they're engaged in the re-distribution of surplus value? or are they actually 'facilitating' the creation of 'surplus-value'? or perhaps these two are not mutually exclusive?

(341): let's not overplay the role of these people, as a mass, in the larger population. she acknolwedges that they are "numerically small", but seems to peg the prominence of a "new social aesthetic" to their rise, nonetheless. i suppose we'll have to admit that this culture exists, of course; though it's prominence is open to contestation. they are certainly not involved in an active "war of position." they don't care about winning "hearts and minds." clearly, with sassen, we are still justified in deriding this as the culture of an unaccountable and seceding elite.

(343): all this, again, seems to represent a "new urban regime" [what does this mean, though--theoretically--for questions re: its stability?]

(344): again, engaging the earlier question of the role of finance--how to make sense of this, exactly? ("This is not to say that finance was unimportant then and manufacturing is unimportant today. Nor is it simply that the financial industry has replaced the auto industry as the leading economic force.

epilogue

(346): there are six sets of debates
(1) re: the global city as model (347-355);
(2) re: place and role of finance
(3) producer services;
(4) relations among cities;
(5) inequality in global cities;
(6) are global cities a new spatial order?

(347): concept of "incipient de-nationalization" -- is this helpful? elites willingly surrendering the state to capital?

(348): no such entity as a single global city--"the global city is a function of cross border network of strategic sites... The global city network is the operational scaffolding of that other fuzzy notion, the global economy."

(349): she is not assuming homogenization--rather, her point is "the development and partial importation of a set of specialized functions and the direct and indirect effects this may have on the larger city."

(349): what work does this distinction do, exactly--"It is not simply a matter of global coordination but one of the production of global control capacities."

(349): she is concerned, after all, with a "whole infrastructure of jobs typically not marked as belonging to the corporate sector of the economy."

(350): "The place-ness of the global city is a crucial theoretical and methodological issue in my work. Theoretically it captures Harvey's notion of capital fixity as necessary for hypermobility."

(350): important--she understands herself as making a "distinction between what is encompassed by the global city model and the larger urban entity called New York... What may have not been stated with adequate clarity... is that the effort... was to understand the impact of the global city function on the larger city, to see whether this impact is beneficial for a larg sector of the population or not..." [i think we can push this much, much further than she has--and then, having done that, doesn't it destabilize much of what is 'formally' advertised in this book?]

(351): one answer to why this prism of the global city is useful (again, though, not because it might tell us about cities, but because it tells us something specific about the global economy): "The concept of the global city introduces a far stronger emphasis on strategic components of the global economy, and hence on questions of power... Overall, I would say, the concept of the global city is more attuned to questions of power and inequality."

(354): speaking, explicitly, of "the global city," as it exists today, as a construction of today--"one of the marking features of the organizational architecture of the current phase" of capitalism.

(358): "indeed it let me to start a major new multiyear project on the role of the state in globalization and the impact of the latter in altering the logic explaining whose claims become legitimate"

(358): acknowledging that 1980s and 1990s "increasingly delinked finance from its role as servicing the 'real' economy." and also that financial turn "is not the first time this happens in recent Western history..." "But in my reading there are distinctive features that differentiate the current phase rom earlier phases."

(360): KEY, responds to the questions I posed earlier--"what is specific about the shift to services is not merely the growth in service jobs but, most importantly, the growing service intensity in the organization of advanced economies: firms in all industries, from mining to wholesale buy more accounting, legal, advertising, financial, economic forecasting services, and so on, today than they did twenty years ago... Cities emerge as important production sites for what are key inputs for firms in all industries."

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

neil brenner critique in "review of international political economy" (1,1, 1998)-- reference point of sassen's concept of "systemic discontinuity" is a static nation-space; she has not seen how the reconfiguration of the state, itself, is concomitant to the same processes that have shaped the city. thus her conclusions about the state suffer because they reify an earlier, temporary form, in effect (he is drawing attention, instead, to regional configurations--not unlike taylor).

peter taylor critique in "review of international political economy" (1, 2, 1994)--sassen misses three things: (1) the focus on three cities is inadequate for an understanding of the world urban hierarchy; (2) her theorization of the state is absent, rigid, inadequate--he wants to mention the possibility that different states will take different tactics re: the production of the global city; (3) her theorization of the 1980s runs roughshod over the realization problem; in effect, taylor is drawing attention to the contradiction of neoliberal restructuring (capital will still need to find a market for its goods). this is why he thinks it is the 1980s that are temporary, rather than the social democratic solution of yesteryear.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

This populism helps explain not only the success of the revolution but also the continued survival of the Islamic Republic. The Republic's constitution -- with 175 clauses -- transformed these general aspirations into specific inscribed promises. It pledged to eliminate poverty, illiteracy, slums and unemployment. It also vowed to provide the population with free education, accessible medical care, decent housing, pensions, disability pay and unemployment insurance. "The government," the constitution declared, "has a legal obligation to provide the aforementioned services to every individual in the country." In short, the Islamic Republic promised to create a full-fledged welfare state -- in its proper European, rather than derogatory American, sense.

Friday, June 5, 2009

It wasn’t only his desire to restore the health of capitalism that set Keynes apart from Marx. His theory of crisis was also fundamentally different. Where Marx saw the driving force of capitalism as accumulation for accumulation’s sake—the constant drive toward profit—Keynes continued to assume that “consumption…is the sole end and object of all economic activity.” The lack of “effective demand” in Keynes’ theory of crises is another way of saying that capital is not being invested; it does not, however, explain why. In short, whereas for Marx the possibility of the separation of purchase and sale that makes crisis a possibility is the starting point for understanding capitalist crisis, for Keynes it is the endpoint. Keynes’ theory of crisis—the lack of aggregate demand—is merely a description of the effects of crisis, not an explanation of why crises take place.
(...) The appeal for some, then, of Keynesian policy is that it calls for some redistribution of wealth from the top to the bottom, and that he pushes for “full employment.” However, Keynes’ perspective on this was strictly a ruling-class one. He supported not higher wages, but rather “the maintenance of a stable general level of money-wages” in order to maintain “equilibrium.” Keynes also thought it important that wages not become too high. In fact, though Keynes criticized the neoclassical theory of wages, he did not completely reject its premises, writing, for example, that, “A reduction in money-wages is quite capable in certain circumstances of affording a stimulus to output, as the classical theory supposes.”
(...) What Keynes added to this understanding was that at times, capitalists might view all other options as money-losing prospects and no matter how low the state moved interest rates, capitalists may still save. Keynes called this a “liquidity trap” and this is exactly the scenario that befell Japanese capitalism in the 1990s. For this reason, Keynes saw manipulating interest rates as only one tool for encouraging investment. The theory is that interest rates can be used to stimulate investment if real interest rates—that is interest rates adjusted for inflation—are cut to a point that they are negative. However, the Japanese experience illustrates that even if interest rates are negative, capitalists won’t invest if there is not a perceived avenue for investment. A similar dynamic is currently playing out within the U.S. economy. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has reduced the target for the Federal Funds rate from 5.25 percent to 1 percent. This has failed to induce lending or investment because there is little for capitalists to invest in that is profitable. Furthermore, central banks only have control of the economic policies within their own countries. It makes the system unstable, because central banks can end up working at cross purposes based on national needs as opposed to having a cohesive view of fiscal policy within the global economy as a whole.
(...) Keynes conceptualized something called the “multiplier” effect. That is, by pumping $100 into the system at the right place, it could generate significantly more activity. Giving $100 to a worker might mean they immediately spend it at the local grocer. The grocer might then turn around and spend $90 of it himself on something else and so on and so on. On the flip side, giving $100 to a billionaire might not accomplish the same thing because the billionaire has no immediate need for the $100 and is only to going to spend if he sees investment opportunities with high rates of return.
(...) Neoliberal ideology, for its part, rejects the role of fiscal stimulus and puts greater emphasis on monetary policy, which accounts for the predominant role of the Federal Reserve Bank over the past thirty years in dealing with economic problems. In practice, however, neoliberals do have a fiscal policy—cutting taxes on the rich and increasing defense spending. As a result, during the neoliberal era government spending as a percent of GDP and per capita has risen, not fallen. Theoretically, neoliberalism is opposed to state intervention. In practice, military spending and corporate welfare are not only accepted but welcome. Now that the system is in crisis, ideology is discarded, and those who may have crowed loudest for the state to leave the market alone demand that the state intervene to save it.
(...) A key linchpin in this agenda was the dollar policy. Coming out of Bretton Woods every currency was pegged to the dollar, which, in turn, was pegged to gold. The fixed exchange rate put a dollar at $35 for an ounce of gold. Currencies would move against the dollar based on whether individual nations had balance of payments problems. If you had a deficit, you had to cut imports or else be forced to devalue. This arrangement more or less held until 1971 when the United States pulled the plug on the gold standard.
(...) The Bretton Woods institutions eventually took on much broader mandates than rebuilding capitalism in Europe and Asia, and after the crisis of the 1970s, adopted neoliberal loan conditions requiring nations to privatize and deregulate their economies. As Joel Geier writes,
Under the original Bretton Woods system, IMF loans were aimed at preventing devaluation and propping up demand. U.S. capital accepted these Keynesian measures when the U.S. was the major world exporter, ran large trade surpluses, and the rest of the world depended on its currency to pay for those imports. But in the 1980s, the IMF turned all of its previous policies on their heads: It now deliberately imposed devaluation and forced reductions in national income and demand in order to limit imports—all as a means to guarantee repayment of debt to international finance capital.

(...) The Great Depression played out in two acts. There was an initial drop to the depths in 1932, a recovery from 1933 to 1936, and then a second drop in 1937 and 1938, even after the initial Keynesian salves had been applied. The economy only decisively recovered in 1939, when the United States began war production for the Allies.
(...) The war effort created the rise in effective demand—in reality, government war spending, not consumer demand—that Keynesian measures failed to produce. As a result, employment and production, especially of arms, helped stimulate economic growth and an end of the Depression. Keynes himself saw the stimulating effects of the war effort as a vindication of his theories, having commented before the outbreak of war, “It is, it seems, politically impossible for a capitalist democracy to organize expenditure on the scale necessary to make the grand experiment that would prove my case—except in war conditions.”29 Of course, the cost of this method of recovery—fifty-five million dead—was a brutal price to pay. Moreover, the war played an important role in helping to wipe out and devalue capital and drastically reduce wages, both of which contributed to the restoration of profit rates after the war, but which were not part of Keynes’ remedies for crisis.
(...) Moreover, in adopting these state-led measures, nations were simply returning to the same policies of “war socialism”—“forced savings, controls on money, credit, prices and labor, priorities, rationing, government-borrowings”—that they had put in place during World War I, “despite the ‘orthodox’ approach to economics that prevailed at that time.”30 It was a sleight of hand for Keynes to now promote war—a product of the unplanned, competitive character of the world system—as proof of his theories.
(...) Yet there was never a point, except during the war itself, where the United States, or any European country, reached full employment. Though the term full employment was thrown around, in practice it was adjusted to mean, in the words of the American Economic Association in a 1950 report, the “absence of mass unemployment.” Proceedings of the British Royal Institute for International Affairs in 1946 defined full employment as “avoiding that level of unemployment, whatever it may happen to be, which there is good reason to fear may provoke an inconvenient restlessness among the electorate.”
(...) It was only well into the 1960s that they started to face competitive pressures that unearthed the contradictions. The U.S. was spending huge sums on its arms industry while its most dynamic competitors—Germany and Japan—were reinvesting in new plant and equipment. Those competitors began to outpace the U.S. in the 1970s. In order to retain economic power, the U.S. needed to lower its labor costs relative to Japan and Germany, a difficult task especially important given that it was saddled with heavy arms expenditures when those nations were not. It was this crisis, in which stagnation was accompanied by inflation, that ultimately paved the way for the neoliberal restructuring of capitalism.

(...) In practice, neoliberalism did not produce a full break from Keynesianism; and in some important respects the limitations of a return to full Keynesian economic policy are already clear. First of all, interest rate reductions—the first line of defense recommended by Keynes—have already been used under the Fed chair Alan Greenspan (when the economy was in boom) and now by Ben Bernanke (in response to the financial crisis). In the first instance, easy money helped create the housing bubble that formed the basis of the current crisis; and the more recent cuts aimed at lifting the financial crisis have not unfrozen bank lending. Second, the government has already run up large deficits for the past two decades—the federal debt now stands at $10.6 trillion, and the current deficit is set to go up to a $1 trillion next year as new stimulus plans are brought on line. The question is how far can this go? The government can print more money, as it has already begun to do now that the dollar has rebounded; but there is a long-term danger of runaway inflation, which could force them to raise interest rates that put a halt to growth.

(...) It is a sign of just how much the economic literacy of the left has deteriorated that Keynesianism—born as a reforming ruling-class economic program—today may become the default position when calling for an alternative to neoliberalism. Yet socialists must make a distinction between those measures of state intervention—such as the bank bailouts—that are measures of state monopoly capitalism designed to save the bankers to the detriment of the working-class taxpayer; and those measures of state intervention that will come as a result of popular demands. Socialists are not indifferent to the reforms—or the struggles to achieve them—that will be necessary to reverse the three decades of capitalist assault on the working class.

Sunday, September 9, 2007

why capitalism needs terror:
It was Nixon and Kissinger together. I end the book with a quote from a declassified letter from Kissinger to Nixon where he says that the threat of Allende was not about any of the things they were publicly saying at the time -- that he was cozying up to the Soviet Union, that he was only pretending to be a democrat and that he was going to turn Chile into a totalitarian system. Kissinger writes the real threat is the problem of social democracy spreading. The Soviet Union was a convenient bogeyman. It was easy to hate Stalin, but what was always more of a threat was the idea of democratic socialism, a third way between totalitarian Communism and capitalism.
(...) The idea that you could turn Chile into a laboratory for extreme Chicago School economics is a little like thinking you could launch a revolution against capitalism in Beverly Hills. It was deeply inhospitable for these ideas. But in this collaboration between Pinochet and the economists who'd gone to the University of Chicago on grants from the U.S. State Department, Chile was a laboratory for all these ideas that to this day have not been implemented in the United States, like a flat tax -- a 15 per cent flat tax -- charter schools, labour laws that essentially made it illegal for unions to be involved in any political activity. Straight out of the handbook, you know? It was like they took Friedman's manifesto and just turned it into law. The idea that this could happen in Chile at this point in history when there was so much support for developmentalism of course required force.
(...) The government, the Communist party, is extremely worried about the levels of inequality that have opened up between the countryside and the city and between the hyper-rich and the hyper-poor living side-by-side. And it's responding in two ways. One is to do some redistribution, which is really outside of the Chicago model. You have major new investments in the countryside, you have a commitment to waive school fees for the first nine years for rural children, because there were 87,000 protests in China last year -- an unbelievable statistic -- so clearly someone's not happy with how things are going in China.
(...) What I think China shows is this idea that there was a natural correlation between capitalism, between free markets and free people -- it's simply not the case. China's either undergoing a very slow transition or they've skipped the democratic phase completely, just sidestepped it, and ended up with this thing that, I think, should be described as corporatism. But that is the trend not just in China but also in Russia, in the United States, in Chile under Pinochet. It was the same patterns of heavily indebted states, actually quite interventionist governments but intervening on behalf of corporations, against workers.
(...) The New Deal came to embody another kind of capitalism, which did much more redistribution. And it wasn't because people were nice; there was a battle of ideas between Communism and capitalism, and in the 1930s and '40s and '50s and '60s it was capitalism in a seductive phase. And so elements of socialism were inserted into this model so that a more radical version of socialism would be less attractive. I'm quoting FDR and Keynes. And that model actually was the period where you had the most rapid economic growth, but it was more fairly distributed. This was the period where the middle class really grew, not just in the United States but in countries like Chile and Argentina. And then kind of a class war was waged -- a right-wing class war.
(...) In 1980 the gap between CEOs and the workers who worked for them was 43:1 and now it's 422:1.
(...) At leftie talks there's always somebody who goes up to the mike and says, "But don't things have to get worse before anything happens?" and I slam those people down because the values that I would hope we represent are human values, and that is such a profoundly anti-human idea -- of desiring a descent so there can be some shock that will wake people up.
(...) Most of those statistics are about China and India, countries that are undergoing rapid urbanization, and what a dollar means if you're living on a farm and growing your own food and have access to water and what it now means in a slum on the outskirts of Delhi, is completely different. But of course there have been successes, and there are wonderful things about living in a capitalist country -- I benefit from it, you benefit from it. We've been forced into believing we can't have the benefits of a market system unless we destroy the bridges that'll allow more people to have that access. And when we do things like, in this country, triple tuition fees over the course of the '90s, and privatize health care, and take out these bridges between classes, we have a very brutal economic law.
(...) Look, I think there's going to be a lot of radical leftists who would be disappointed by how Keynesian this book is.

Thursday, June 7, 2007

the thinning of the welfare state:
Some 47 million Americans have no health insurance, and the number grows daily. Health insurance is rapidly becoming unaffordable. Premiums rose an average of 73 percent in just five years (2000-2005.)
(...) Social Security replaces, on average, 41 percent of workers' pre-retirement income. Most experts agree that, to maintain something close to the lifestyle you lived in your working years, you need retirement resources that replace 75 to 90 percent of your wages.
(...) The employer attack on pensions has been highly successful. There were 95,000 such plans in 1980; it was down to 85,000 in 1993, and fell to less than 27,000 in 2005. Today only 21 percent of the workforce is covered by defined benefit pensions-the most secure type of employment-based retirement plan.

Monday, May 7, 2007

what sarkozy brings:
A whopping record 86% of French voters went to the polls today to give an unambiguous victory to the autocratic, demagogic, hard-right nationalist Sarkozy, who campaigned on promises of a "rupture" with France's mixed economy and its welfare state, one of the most extensive in Europe.
(...) The crowd in the hall where Sarkozy declared victory after the polls closed repeatedly sang the national anthem, La Marseillaise -- with its famous xenophobic refrain, "Marchons, marchons! Qu'un sang impur abreuve nos sillons!" (Translation: Let us march, let us march, May impure blood soak the furrows of our fields.) And Sarkozy's campaign was marked by incessant appeals to racism and the fear of immigrants, symbolized by his adoption of a slogan used by the neo-fascist leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, "France, love it or leave it," and by his proposal for a new "Ministry of Immigration and National Identity," which was widely criticized by the left and by anti-racist groups for amalgamating the two concepts and suggesting a fundamental opposition between the two.
(...) That lurch to the right five years ago by a significant portion of formerly left voters was confirmed by today's vote, in which more than two-thirds of former Le Pen voters -- many of them from the one-time Communist-dominated working class suburbs -- went for Sarkozy, according to the exit polls.
(...) But in reality, what Sarkozy's victory means for France is something closer to the so-called "Reagan Revolution" in the U.S. that began in 1981 the process of dismantling and destroying the institutional New Deal legacy of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Chirac was a Gaullist, and the political heritage of General Charles De Gaulle, who led France from 1958 to 1969, included a vigorously statist approach to the economy and defense of a wide series of social protection and social safety-net measures that had been instituted by the left's Popular Front government in the mid-1930s, and which were renewed and extended by post-war governments dominated by the political activists of the Resistance movement to Nazi occupation, who had a conception of government as a guarantor of economic security for all. Sarkozy is of a new generation than Chirac and, ideologically, not a Gaullist -- but rather in phase with the "Chicago school" of economics led by Milton Friedman, which believes in minimal government, a slimmed-down state that interferes as little as possible in the economy, an aggressively laissez-faire approach that is dear to the economic barons of the MEDEF, the French business leaders' association, whose tycoons were solidly behind Sarkozy's candidacy. Sarkozy has already promised to, in effect, abolish the ISF (the tax on large fortunes), accord more tax breaks to big business and the upper-middle-classes, and make more cuts in the state-run national health system (declared by a U.N. survey to be the finest in the world in terms of delivery of health services and quality of care.) Sarkozy's economic program is designed to help the already-privileged classes retain and extend their socio-economic position, to the detriment of the have-nots (the massive pro-Sarkozy vote in the upper-income neighborhoods today confirms that they understood Sarko's message to them.) And he has promised a major down-sizing of the civil service employed by state agencies.
(...) Life for the have-nots will become even more difficult under Sarkozy's hard-right, anti-immigrant, law-and-order society. He has announced "zero tolerance" for illegal immigration, has deported tens of thousands of immigrants during his two terms as Interior Minister and split up immigrant families while making it tougher for them to become French citizens. He has proposed strict minimum sentences for all sorts of crimes, thus removing all discretion from French judges, and France's already-crowded prisons will soon be overflowing with expanded, and younger, populations. French prisons, like ours, are training institutes for criminals, and by sending ever-larger numbers of young people to them for petty offenses Sarkozy will, in fact, be manufacturing new generations of hardened voyous (thugs in French.)
(...) And, in a major campaign speech just days before the election, Sarkozy surprisingly devoted 20 minutes of his discourse to a violent denunciation of the May 1968 student-worker revolt (Sarko was only 14 at the time of that rebellion.). The heritage of May ';68, Sarko thundered, must be "liquidated." He blamed it for a generalized attitude of "laxisme," for France's having become a country "in which work has no value, in which people think they can do anything they feel like doing, in which people are lazy," and on and on. May '68 was, of course, the fountain of social ferment that led to the sexual revolution, to women's liberation and the legalization of abortion, the gay liberation movement and the eventual repeal of laws criminalizing homosexuality, and a whole series of cultural changes that opened up a stuffy, arteriosclerotic French society. But May '68 was also a general strike by 11 million French workers that gained union recognition in many factories, higher wages, and that won a reinforcement of the social safety net in an agreement (negotiated on behalf of then-President Georges Pompidou by a young Jacques Chirac) that became known as "les accords de la rue de Grenelle" (the agreement of Grenelle Street). What was unstated in Sarko's anti-May '68 speech was that all that sort of thing, too, must be "liquidated."