are we heading for global stagflation?:
That is because inflation in modern economies is essentially about two forces: the fight over distributive shares in national income by different groups, and the role of expectations about inflation. Thus, if there is a rise in commodity prices (that would increase the relative income share of commodity producers) then this will only lead to a rise in the general price level if capitalists insist on maintaining their margins over costs at the same level. If they are unable to do so for any reason, then the rise in commodity prices need not translate into a generalised inflation. Similarly, if the initial rise in prices pushes down real wages and workers are not in a position to demand increases in nominal wages that would maintain their real wages, then the inflation is controlled. Tight monetary policies are usually a way of enforcing this by allowing greater unemployment, so they work indirectly rather than directly to control inflation. So inflation reflects a wider fight over income distribution.
(...) Therefore, whether or not there will be stagflation depends ultimately on international political economy and the relative strength of different groups in the world economy. It may be argued that working classes and peasants have been so weakened by the onslaught of neoliberal policies of the past two decades that they are in no position to fight to maintain even their already significantly diminished shares of income. If this is true, then the likelihood for the immediate future is an economic recession with worsened conditions of living and higher unemployment across the world, albeit with lower rates of aggregate inflation.